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Download the report from the Thirty-Ninth Strategy for Peace Conference:
US Relations With Iran and Iraq: Convergence and Contention in the Persian Gulf
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Download the reports from the Persian Gulf Project:
US-European Policy in the Persian Gulf: Time for Precrisis Management
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US-European Policy in the Persian Gulf: Beyond the Friction
(Adobe Acrobat Reader required.)

Visit the Common Ground Web site for the transcript and audio of the radio program:

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Visit the Emerging From Conflict Web site.

The US has long and ongoing strategic and economic interests in the Persian Gulf. US foreign policy and military efforts to protect those interests have increased sharply over this decade. Yet, policymaking in the Gulf is hampered by the fact that the US is engaged in deep conflict with two of the Gulf's leading states—Iran and Iraq.

Identifying ways to ameliorate tensions between the US and Iran and Iraq was a key task for a discussion group convened last October as part of the Emerging From Conflict program. The group of Gulf experts agreed that decision making on US policy toward Iran and Iraq is hampered by a lack of adequate information from and communication with the two countries.

The group also said some change in US policy toward the region is occurring while other elements remain the same. The latter include the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act, multilateral sanctions against Iraq, and ongoing US military action in Iraq. The changes include a perceived shift away from the American "dual containment" policy toward Iran and Iraq.

Iran
The 1997 election of Iranian President Mohammed Khatami is seen as having the potential for improving the US-Iran relationship. The US State Department has signaled a willingness to cautiously recast US policy.

According to the report issued from this conference, "...Iran's foreign policy seems moderated and...Khatami appears much less bellicose in his world view. Nonetheless, there is little evidence of real change. Some participants went further arguing that they see no significant change other than a realization by many Iranians that the country must break its isolation."

Iraq
The group found consensus around two main points regarding the US and Iraq. First, the US struggles to maintain its large military presence in the Gulf. And second, Gulf War allies are increasingly unwilling to respond militarily to Saddam Hussein.

The majority of the group also expressed concern about the dismal conditions facing most Iraqi citizens. But they were unable to agree on specific changes to the sanctions policy. The group also discussed the possibility of opposition groups inside Iraq fomenting political upheaval, but failed to reach strong consensus on the likelihood of such activity or the appropriate role the US could play in those events.

Recommendations
Various group members made policy recommendations. They said, among other things, that the US should:

• Thoroughly review overall policy in the Gulf region
• Move on rapprochement with Iran before the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act expires in 2001
• Reevaluate and, in some cases, ease unilateral sanctions
• Include Iran in Caspian Sea development discussions
• Foster civil society in Iran by supporting community development, civil society connections across borders, and people-to-people exchanges
• Establish common goals with Iraq and open discrete venues for negotiations